13/10 Updates: 60 trades in, are we +4pts or +1.1pts up? Key lessons half way the experiment

Right, been a while since the last blog

There as been a fair bit of trading and we are over halfway towards the target of 100 trades!!

I can confirm that trading outside the season form is likely to deliver poor or inconsistent results. I always knew this was the theory i.e. avoid International breaks etc...

It was a tricky stretch from 8th October to Thursday 10th October with circa 4 points lost taking us to around -1point down overall before the weekend.

Friday and Saturday were decent and and the current overall position is +1.3 points after circa 60 trades as at close of business Sunday 13th October. (Ignore the greyhound results- just running some tests)

Interestingly for circa 70% of those trades, my maximum liability has been £5 yet I started out the project counting a point as £10

Taking my point as £5, then we would be sitting at 2.7 points around half way our experiment, which is a bit more encouraging.

Once we complete the first 100 trades, I will be clear what my liability per trade is and therefore my stake. As previously mentioned, I go in with 2 x 50% stakes (currently at £2.50 each).

Either way, loads of learning and I really forward to the end of the international break this coming weekend for the proper football to resume (and more consistent results hopefully)

Also, I have introduced the same approach I use in the second half to the first half so I can build more of a portfolio-based trading approach. This helps when second half is going through a drought as it did earlier in the week. So far so good

Key lessons half way our experiment:

1. Stake very carefully: Start with the lowest possible stake. I started with £10 which was quite high. I am very comfortable with £5 maximum liability. And I enter many trades with as low as £1

2. Shortlists really do matter, quality over quantity: Steer clear of football trading in the international breaks ! Saturday and Sundays will still have some good competitive football on , but the mid week stuff isn't worth it. Check out the glaring differences in my results before the international break and during.

3. A day in trading is meaningless - always think long-term (100 trades): One really needs to think long term. It is probably pointless me sharing the theory so lets see the practical meaning below:

   1. In my mind, that is 100 trades from when I started.

   2. 3.5 points up after 25 trades: I am gonna be rich by Christmas!: I had a fantastic start to the experiment making almost 4 points over the first 25 to 30 trades or so. I then got slaughtered in the second week

   3. 50 trades later, all the beautiful profit is lost and I am down -0.9 points: A rubbish 4 days during the international week and I feel like giving up!

   4. 65 - 70 trades later, we are back in profit! +1.3 points: A few bruising lessons learned but we are back in profit. In fact, the stake size has normalised at £5 max, and technically we are up 2.7 points.