About
Welcome to Trade Carefully, where data-driven strategies meet the right mindset for success in the tough world of sports trading.
We believe that winning in sports trading isn’t just about finding the right edge—it’s about developing a disciplined mindset and using data as your guide. As you will see from the starting point (still listed on this page) and some of the old blog articles, our journey began with a single goal: to bring clarity and structure to the often chaotic world of sports markets. With years of experience and numerous lessons learned, we've come to understand that success isn’t just about what you trade—it’s how you think.
At Trade Carefully, we share our insights from a wealth of experience in sports trading, from the meticulous data analysis behind our strategies to the mindset shifts that have helped us navigate the ups and downs of this challenging pursuit. We’re not just about numbers; we’re about building the mental resilience needed to stay calm during volatility and turn losses into valuable lessons.
Through our blog, we provide actionable tips, proven strategies, and expert advice on how to use data to guide your decisions, enhance your trading techniques, and master the emotional challenges of the trading world. Whether you're just starting out or looking to refine your skills, we’re here to help you make smarter, data-driven decisions and create a mindset that can weather any storm.
Our mission is simple: To help you trade carefully, think strategically, and grow your success one data point at a time.
Join us on this journey, and let’s build the mindset and strategies that can take your trading to the next level.
Check out our blog content to get started
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THE STARTING POINT (I have kept these old pages for reference to show how it all started)...
Note: The below written back in October 2024 - fair to say things have evolved since then :)
I will use this blog to run a real-life experiment to capture the experience of Sports Trading on Betfair. I have been trading for 7 years and do have considerable experience in understanding the markets. But like many in this business, I have not consistently applied the right MINDSET, to achieve consistent profitability.
Thank you for joining me on this journey and for the support. I really hope you find this useful
Feel free to subscribe to the newsletter for regular updates, or check out my trading diary which I will update as often as possible
Key Info
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Launch Date: 1/10/2024
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Blog early testing start date: 22/8/2024
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Sport of Focus: Football
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Initial Bank: £1000
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Stake Management: After 6 rounds of testing and approximately 1,200 bets placed, I shall move to Maximum 1% of total bank at that point. See the updated results page here
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Markets of Focus: Match Odds, Correct Score and Goal Markets (this is the main one)
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Time of Entry: Mainly 30+ (first half) or 75+ (second half)
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Key Criteria To Check Before Entering A Trade:
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Pre-kick off odds for Over 2.5 goals and match odds
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Current match odds
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In-play shots and statistics (I refer to XG as well when available)
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Current scoreline and half time scoreline
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Number of goals already scored in the second half (zero in my case)
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Type of Trading:
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Mainly manual trading using 1 x paid for well-known research tool called Goal Profits as well as free sites (mainly bet365 and Soccerway)
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Automated using BfBotmanager to test out potential angles (but I won't report on these till there is decent potential shown). Most of these will end up in the bin! Update as at November 2024: I have paused the automation as no sign of anything promising and will focus on manual trades for now
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Strategy Results Review Points:
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200 trades for Manual trading
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I don't believe in reviewing results monthly. The markets aren't paying you a salary so a month in itself is meaningless.
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The Purpose
To create a transparent blog that details a sports traders journey including ups, downs, wins, losses and most importantly to demonstrate how important mindset is in this game.
If you are just starting out, there are plenty of free resources out there to give you a basic understanding of the Betfair exchange and sports trading. I won't be covering these on this blog.
