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17/12: A losing day. From 2pts profit to 2pts loss!

Today was real demonstation of the mind tricks when it comes to betfair trading


My first trade came in and delivered +1.98 pts in profit. Now, I have been waxing lyrical about protecting profit and should have effectively been done for the day based on this principle


Now, what happened next changed the day for me. My next 2 qualifiers (which I didn't trade) all came in, which would have given me another 4 points for the day (gross, excluding commission)


So, what do I do next? Re-enter the market and suffer a string of losses as below:


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Furthermore, based on an analysis of my drawdown to date and to make the most of the actual funds sitting in my Betfair account, I decided a trial of a new approach as below:


  • Betair balance divided by 25 = Betting stake


Key note on this: This is just a test to see if I can aggressively use my betfair bank balance. The trading bank required for this, and most other strategies, remains 100 points (minimum)


The only problem is I started this in the middle of a round without proper thinking and a plan.


Anyways, will reflect today and have a think about at what point I want to stop trading especially if my first trade is successful. (i.e. what is the optimum point to stop). The reason I am not convinced yet is I still haven't got huge amounts of data (currently sitting at around 800 trades with the last orders strategy). Will firm up my approach before the weekend.


Last orders strategy doing well - can it last? Overall though, the last orders strategy does look like it has serious potential - can it sustain current performance is the key question that will only be answerable after at least 6 more trading rounds.


 
 
 

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Trade Carefully is blog that focusses on using data-driven approaches to build the right mindset to have any chance of success long term. Sports Trading is an extremely difficult path to follow. It requires strict discipline, patience, and can result in losses.  

 

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