Sports Trading Strategies

The Greyhound Filtered Strategy (aka Dog Pound)

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The Greyhound Filtered Strategy was built from the ground up with one goal in mind: consistency in high-variance markets.

Rather than trying to bet every race, I took the opposite approach — filtering down and focusing only on the race conditions that have shown the strongest, repeatable inefficiencies. This wasn’t about chasing lucky streaks, but about letting thousands of data points reveal where the market consistently misprices outcomes.

The strategy combines:

• Selective race filters – only certain grades and distances qualify.

• Value focus – entries are made at prices where the market has historically overreacted.

• Variance control – the system is stress-tested to withstand long losing runs while still delivering sustainable growth.

The result is a leaner, sharper approach that turns raw data into a clear trading edge.

📊 Results So Far

✅ Strategy Evolution

Early Days: I began by testing thousands of races across all grades and distances. The raw numbers showed potential but came with heavy swings — big wins followed by equally big drawdowns.

Refinement: Through ongoing analysis, I cut away the weaker race categories and narrowed focus to only the strongest performers.

Breakthrough: With this filtering applied, the system transformed. ROI has stabilised at around +39% after commission across more than 1,350 live-tested bets, confirming a genuine and repeatable edge.

📈 Monthly Performance (Mar – Oct 2025)

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• March: +198 units — breakout month; early test success

• April: +59 units — stable returns as filters tightened

• May: +7 units — essentially flat; variance contained

• June: +135 units — strong follow-through month

• July: +28 units — solid, low-variance recovery

• August: +64 units — one of the most consistent months

• September: +28 units — sideways but positive

• October: +2 units — quiet but still in profit

Overall Stats (Mar – Oct 2025):

• Total Profit: +523 units (after 2% commission)

• Average ROI: +38.7%

• Total Bets: 1,354

• Strike Rate: 11.5%

💡 Key Takeaways

• The Dog Pound strategy continues to deliver steady, data-driven profitability.

• No losing months so far in live testing.

• Largest drawdown remains around −60 units — fully within planned tolerance.

• The strongest performers remain A2 450 m, A6 476 m, and D2 261 m, confirming the edge is structural, not streak-based.