The Dog Pound Results

Results as at April 2026

All results shown below are based on live testing using a fully automated setup via BF Bot Manager. A 2% Betfair commission has been applied to all figures.

This is a high-variance strategy operating at average odds of approximately 12.5 with a strike rate around 11%. As such, performance should always be viewed over large sample sizes and complete cycles, rather than isolated short-term periods.

Headline Performance (Live)

Total Bets: ~1,840
Total Profit: ~+480 units
ROI: ~26%
Strike Rate: ~11%
Max Drawdown: ~−136 units

300-Bet Cycle Performance

The strategy is best understood through 300-bet cycles, which help smooth out short-term variance and provide a clearer view of long-term expectancy.

Cycle 1: +277.10 units
Cycle 2: +115.61 units
Cycle 3: +85.57 units
Cycle 4: +63.08 units
Cycle 5: −10.89 units
Cycle 6: −61.60 units
Cycle 7: In progress

The sixth cycle was the most difficult completed cycle so far, finishing at −61.60 units. This reflects the high-variance nature of the strategy and reinforces why results should be assessed over multiple cycles, not isolated periods.

Monthly Performance

Month 1: +204 units
Month 2: +140 units
Month 3: +30 units
Month 4: +72 units
Month 5: −27 units
Month 6: +10.25 units
April 2026: −68.4 units

April represents the most challenging month in the live dataset so far, with a loss of −68.4 units across 102 bets. This extended the overall drawdown beyond previously observed levels.

Importantly, this does not indicate a structural issue with the strategy. The selection process, filters, and execution remain unchanged. The observed performance is consistent with the expected variance profile of a high-odds, low strike rate approach.

Key Observations

The strategy remains profitable overall despite the recent drawdown
Variance can be significant, including extended losing periods
Performance should be assessed over full cycles and large sample sizes
Discipline and consistency in execution are critical

Important Notes

Minimum recommended bank: 400 units (users may consider higher for additional variance protection)
Minimum sample size before evaluation: 500 bets
Fully automated execution — no manual intervention

This is not a strategy designed for smooth or consistent short-term returns.

It is built to exploit long-term inefficiencies and requires patience to realise its edge.