The Dog Pound Results

All results shown below are based on live testing using a fully automated setup via BF Bot Manager. A 2% Betfair commission has been applied to all figures.

This is a high-variance strategy operating at average odds of approximately 12.5 with a strike rate around 11%. Performance should therefore be evaluated over large sample sizes and complete cycles rather than isolated short-term periods.

Headline Performance (Live as at May 2026)

• Total Bets: 1,919

• Total Profit: +461.07 units

• ROI: ~24%

• Strike Rate: ~11%

• Max Drawdown: ~−136 units

300-Bet Cycle Performance

The strategy is best understood through 300-bet cycles, which help smooth out short-term variance and provide a clearer view of long-term expectancy.

• Cycle 1: +277.10 units

• Cycle 2: +115.61 units

• Cycle 3: +85.57 units

• Cycle 4: +63.08 units

• Cycle 5: −10.89 units

• Cycle 6: −61.60 units

• Cycle 7: In progress

Cycle 6 represented the most difficult completed cycle in the live dataset so far, highlighting the true variance profile of a high-odds, low strike rate strategy.

Monthly Performance

• March 2025: +198.64 units

• April 2025: +59.06 units

• May 2025: +7.21 units

• June 2025: +134.55 units

• July 2025: +27.77 units

• August 2025: +63.95 units

• September 2025: +28.34 units

• October 2025: −3.61 units

• November 2025: +1.63 units

• December 2025: +14.80 units

• January 2026: −3.75 units

• February 2026: −27.94 units

• March 2026: +6.26 units

• April 2026: −68.99 units

• May 2026: +23.16 units

Total: +461.07 units

April was the most challenging month in the live dataset so far. May then delivered a more stable profile, finishing positive and helping reinforce the importance of assessing performance over longer time horizons rather than reacting emotionally to short-term variance.

Key Observations

• The strategy remains strongly profitable overall despite the recent drawdown

• Variance can be significant, including extended losing periods

• The edge appears to remain structurally intact following the difficult Cycle 6 period

• Performance should be judged over complete cycles and large sample sizes

• Discipline and consistency in execution remain critical