April 2026 Update — A Difficult Month, But Within Expectations

April was one of the tougher months since going live with the strategy.

A total of 102 bets were placed, resulting in a loss of −68.4 units. This makes it the most challenging month in the live dataset so far and pushes the current drawdown beyond previously observed levels.

While this is clearly not the outcome we aim for, it is important to view this period in the context of how the strategy is designed to operate.

This is a high-odds, low strike rate approach, with average odds around 12.5 and a strike rate of approximately 11%. As a result, losing runs can cluster and extend beyond what may feel comfortable in the short term. April is a clear example of that behaviour.

What matters most is whether this represents a structural issue or simply variance playing out.

At this stage, there are no signs of a breakdown in the underlying edge. The selection criteria remain unchanged, execution remains fully automated, and the overall long-term performance continues to hold.

Looking at the broader picture, the strategy has still delivered approximately +480 units profit across the live dataset to date, despite the current drawdown. This reinforces the importance of evaluating performance over larger sample sizes rather than focusing on individual months.

The concept of 300-bet cycles remains central. We are currently in Cycle 6, which has entered a difficult phase but is showing early signs of stabilisation. As always, the intention is to complete the full cycle before drawing any conclusions.

Periods like this are part of the process. They are also the moments where discipline matters most. Intervening, adjusting, or second-guessing during drawdowns is often where long-term performance is compromised.

For now, the approach remains unchanged:

Continue running the strategy as designed

Complete Cycle 6

Reassess only once the full cycle is finished

Patience remains key.

The next update will focus on the completion of Cycle 6 and what that tells us about the current phase of performance.