End of January 2026 Update: A Partial Month, Real Variance, and Why Sample Size Matters

January marked the first live results period for 2026 and the continuation of the Greyhound Filtered Strategy (aka Dog Pound) following extensive testing throughout 2025.

While the month delivered fewer bets than usual due to a small operational issue, it also provided a useful reminder of how variance behaves within a higher-odds strategy — and why short timeframes such as calendar months can be misleading.

📊 January 2026 Performance (Incomplete Month)

Due to the bot being stopped for part of the month, January includes a reduced number of qualifying bets.

Bets: 64
Wins: 4
Result: −3.75 units
ROI: −5.86%

(Commission fully applied)

On its own, this represents a small losing period — something that is entirely normal within the context of this strategy and well within historical variance.

⚠️ A Note on Incomplete Data

Between 18th January and 27th January, the bot stopped placing bets without immediate detection.

As a result:

Several qualifying races were missed
Total bet volume for January is significantly lower than a typical month

This doesn’t affect the strategy itself, but it does mean January should not be viewed as a full performance period.

Transparency is important, so it’s worth highlighting.

📈 Why Monthly Results Are a Poor Measure of Performance

One of the key lessons that continues to emerge with this strategy is how misleading short timeframes can be.

Because the system operates at higher odds, results naturally arrive in clusters rather than evenly spread. This means that breaking performance down by calendar months often creates unnecessary noise — particularly when a month contains a relatively small number of bets (as was the case in January).

To better reflect how the edge actually behaves, performance has also been reviewed in rolling blocks of around 300 bets, which represent a far more meaningful sample size.

🔍 Performance by 300-Bet Cycles (Live Data)

When the full dataset is split into consecutive 300-bet segments, the results look like this:

Bets 1–300: +277 units (ROI +92%)
Bets 301–600: +116 units (ROI +39%)
Bets 601–900: +86 units (ROI +29%)
Bets 901–1,200: +63 units (ROI +21%)
Bets 1,201–1,500: −11 units (near flat, normal variance)

(The latest block is still incomplete and should not be judged yet.)

Viewed this way, a much clearer and more realistic picture emerges:

Some cycles outperform strongly.Some cool off.Occasionally a near-flat or slightly negative stretch appears.

But over meaningful samples, performance consistently reverts toward positive expectancy.

This is exactly what a genuine edge looks like in practice.

🧠 Putting January Into the Right Context

Seen in isolation, January shows a modest loss over a limited number of bets.

Seen as part of a broader performance cycle, it simply blends into the normal ebb and flow of variance that has existed throughout the strategy’s life.

Nothing unusual has appeared. No behaviour has changed.The long-term edge remains intact.

This is why patience and discipline remain central to the Trade Carefully philosophy.

Markets don’t pay a monthly salary.

💷 A Brief Note on Stakes

January also marked the controlled move from tiny test stakes to a minimum £1 stake following around nine months of live validation.

Execution and behaviour have remained exactly as expected — no changes to strategy logic, just a natural progression in stake size.

🔜 Looking Ahead

With the bot now running smoothly again, February should provide a full month of uninterrupted data.

The plan remains unchanged:

No tweaks
No optimisation
Continued disciplined execution

The focus stays firmly on long-term performance rather than short-term swings.

💬 Final Thoughts

January delivered a useful reminder of two core realities:

Variance is unavoidable in higher-odds trading
Short timeframes can distort perception

A partial month and a modest loss change nothing about the broader edge that has been built and tested across a large live dataset.

Quiet consistency remains the objective.

⚠️ Responsible Trading

Trade Carefully promotes data-driven decision-making and long-term thinking.

Sports trading involves variance and drawdowns.If you ever feel control slipping, please seek support from organisations such as GambleAware.