🐾 December Results and Update: Closing the Year With Clarity

December marked an important point in the evolution of the Greyhound Filtered Strategy (aka Dog Pound) — not because of spectacular returns, but because the data finally gave us clarity.

After a choppy autumn and a partially disrupted November, December provided enough fresh volume to answer a key question that’s been sitting in the background for some time:

Which parts of the strategy genuinely deserve to remain in the core system?

📊 December in Numbers

December closed solidly positive, reinforcing the idea that the underlying edge remains intact.

• December result: +14.8 units

• Bets: 151

• Strike rate: In line with long-term average

• Commission: Fully applied

More importantly, December helped stabilise the year-end equity curve after a flat patch — exactly what you want to see from a system designed to operate through variance.

📈 Year-to-Date Context (Why December Matters)

With data now running from March through to the end of December, the strategy stands at:

• 1,500+ live bets

• +532 units profit (after commission)

• ~35% ROI after commission

• Average odds ~12.5

• Worst drawdown ~60 units

• No structural breakdown

  
  

At this point, the strategy is statistically significant. We’re no longer dealing with “early promise” — we’re dealing with a system that has been stress-tested in real markets.

And that’s what made December such a useful month.

🔍 The Open Race (OR) Question — Finally Answered

From early on, Open Races (OR) were included deliberately.They were tested live, alongside graded races, because assumptions don’t belong in data-driven work.

However, with December’s data now included, the picture is clear:

• A- and D-grade races continue to deliver strong, repeatable returns

• OR races, by contrast, have failed to justify their place in the core strategy

Despite hundreds of bets:

• OR races are flat at best, negative at worst

• They add volatility without adding meaningful expectancy

• They dilute overall performance rather than enhance it

This isn’t a reaction to one bad month. It’s the result of large-sample, live evidence.

🧠 Why This Is a Strength, Not a Weakness

One of the most important principles behind Trade Carefully is this:

Good strategies are refined — not defended blindly.

The Dog Pound was built from a much larger research universe:

• 27,000+ races collected

• Multiple race types tested

• Weak categories removed only after real-world evidence

Removing OR races from the core strategy isn’t an admission of failure — it’s proof the process works.

This is exactly how a professional system should evolve.

🔜 What Happens Next

From January 2026, the plan is simple and disciplined:

• The core strategy will focus on A- and D-grade races only

• OR races remain part of the research record, but not the live execution set

• The automated BF Bot Manager setup continues unchanged in behaviour — just cleaner in scope

• Stakes move to a modest but meaningful £1 minimum, following months of validation

The goal isn’t to chase higher short-term numbers. It’s to concentrate capital where the edge is strongest.

💬 Final Thoughts

December didn’t deliver fireworks — and that’s a good thing.

What it delivered was confirmation:

• Confirmation that the edge still exists

• Confirmation that variance behaves as expected

• Confirmation that some components deserve to be removed

As we head into 2026, the strategy is leaner, clearer, and better defined than ever.

Quiet consistency, evidence-led decisions, and patience remain the guiding principles.

⚠️ Responsible Trading

Trade Carefully is about long-term thinking, discipline, and data — not gambling.

Sports trading involves variance and drawdowns.If you ever feel control slipping, please seek support from organisations such as GambleAware.