November / December 2025 Update: Variance, Reality, and Why the Data Still Matters

Not every update is about growth curves and smooth equity lines.

Sometimes, the most important updates are the uncomfortable ones — the ones that test discipline, patience, and whether a strategy is genuinely built for the long term.

November has been one of those months.

📊 Where Things Stand

Using the refined Greyhound Filtered Strategy (aka Dog Pound), the system remains strongly profitable overall, with:

• 1,400+ live bets

• ~35% ROI after commission

• A consistent strike rate around 11%

• No structural breakdown in core race types

However, the most recent data paints a more nuanced picture.

October closed slightly positive, and November to date has been choppy and low-volume, with performance oscillating around breakeven — exactly the kind of behaviour you expect from a high-odds, variance-heavy system.

⚠️ A Note on Missing Data (Transparency Matters)

It’s important to be completely transparent here.

Between 11th November and 25th November, the bot responsible for collecting and executing bets crashed without my immediate knowledge. As a result, some qualifying bets during that window were not logged, meaning the dataset for November is incomplete.

That missing data does not invalidate the strategy — but it does mean November’s figures should be interpreted with caution.

This is exactly why:

• I avoid over-weighting short-term results, and

• I always emphasise that monthly snapshots are checkpoints, not verdicts.

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🧠 Why This Doesn’t Change the Bigger Picture

The Dog Pound strategy was never built to “pay a monthly salary.”

Markets don’t work like that.

Edges express themselves over hundreds and thousands of bets, not neat calendar windows. Flat months, red months, and messy months are part of the statistical landscape — especially at average odds north of 12.0.

What matters more than any single month is that:

• The same race types continue to outperform (A2 450m, A6 476m, D2 261m).

• The long-term ROI remains intact.

• Drawdowns stay within expected, stress-tested limits.

So far, all three remain true.

Check out the strategy / results page here